The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s loss in the Bankipur by-election may be its most significant electoral reverse since the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Prashant Kishor, leader of the fledgling Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), which was routed in Bihar’s Assembly elections last year, stormed the BJP bastion with a decisive victory margin of 19,324 votes. In Madhya Pradesh, another BJP-governed state, the Congress retained the Datia seat. The BJP’s sole consolation came from Gujarat, where it retained Manjalpur, but at a significantly lower margin than in the 2022 Assembly election. By-elections do not indicate the larger popular mood. Their results are not often seen to reflect even the state’s political order. When there are too few of them and when they are held across states, drawing a message of national relevance can become unwieldy. However, the results from Monday have significance that goes beyond the three constituencies.

Bankipur has been a BJP stronghold since 1995. The constituency, represented by Nitin Nabin since 2010, went to the polls following Nabin’s resignation after being elected to the Rajya Sabha. That the party lost an urban constituency composed of upper-caste and middle-class voters — its core electorate — to a political rookie is particularly significant, given that it is in power in both the Centre and the state. By replacing Nitish Kumar with Samrat Choudhary as the Chief Minister, the BJP had asserted its dominance in Bihar. The Bankipur outcome undermines that narrative of authority and may be interpreted as reflecting anti-incumbency.

Kishor’s margin of victory is emphatic, considering that he was in the fray less than a year after what was dubbed a failed political experiment, and that Nabin won the seat in 2025 by over 51,000 votes. While the JSP leader clearly drew votes from both the BJP and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the ruling party’s loss carries the louder political message. It remains to be seen if this experiment holds political appeal across diverse social groups. The possible impact of the Gen Z protests demanding examination reform will also be a point of concern for the BJP as it takes stock of this defeat. In Manjalpur, where the voting dropped significantly to 37.5 per cent, the BJP won but with a markedly thinner margin — from over a lakh in 2022 to about 30,000. Congress’s victory in the BJP-dominated Madhya Pradesh provides momentum after recent setbacks. The takeaways from the results are largely symbolic, but they assume greater relevance ahead of key state elections, including in Uttar Pradesh. (Source: DH)