With the southwest monsoon starting to withdraw, the fallout of deficient rainfall is becoming increasingly evident across regions. The retreat has commenced from western Rajasthan and is set to cover the country’s eastern and southern parts soon. Weather analysts estimate that by the time the withdrawal is complete, around October 15, India will have recorded one of its weakest monsoons. The rainfall has been about 15% less than the long period average, with some states recording a drop of more than 20%. The southern peninsula has seen the largest deficit of 28%, followed by east and northeast India, at 25%. These patterns have parallels in 2014 and 2015, when El Niño originating in the Pacific waters caused a rainfall deficit of 12% and 14%, respectively. Projections of a more intense warming have heightened concerns this year. India is expected to be among the countries worst affected by the Super El Niño.
The drop in rainfall has coincided with the emergence of drought conditions. Karnataka and Maharashtra have officially declared drought in 177 and 265 taluks, respectively. Many parts of Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, and Jharkhand have experienced long dry spells. The central government has sent observers to states to assess the situation. The kharif production is likely to be affected, especially because the overall sown area is less than last year’s by about 1.3%. The acreage of paddy – the main kharif crop – is down by 3.7%. Deficient rainfall is likely to aggravate the impact of reduced acreage. Farmers are also reportedly abandoning crops following uncertainty over yields.
The central and state governments should step up efforts to mitigate the drought’s impact and deliver timely aid to farmers and those affected by the dry spells. Standard measures towards climate resilience, such as crop diversification, must be fast-tracked. Efficient management of water for irrigation and consumption needs to be prioritised, along with the supply of subsidised or free inputs. Promoting employment schemes will be crucial. The long-term impact of the monsoon deficit will be felt beyond agriculture. Industry, services, health, and tourism are among sectors that will be affected in varying degrees. A report by Climate Impact Lab says India might see an additional 15,800 heat-related deaths in the next six months. In line with increasingly disruptive climate patterns, heat and drought are likely to overwhelm some regions while excessive rainfall and flooding hit others. Embedding this unpredictability into climate preparedness will be one of India’s key tasks this year and beyond. (Source: DH)
